In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." 0 The most credible theory might be one articulated by analyst David Shor: that for years, there's been a rising correlation between low levels of social and institutional trust, higher support for President Trump, and survey non-response. Cook Political Report on Friday moved its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats.. Why it matters: President Trump's troubles are spilling over to affect Republicans down the ballot — which could foreshadow a blue wave in November. [CDATA[// >. October 29: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. We and other analysts wrote ad nauseum about Trump's drag on House Republicans, especially in suburban districts. But the more polls we saw, the less accurate our forecast became. The Cook Political Report has updated its outlook for 12 House races. This wasn't just the case in heavily blue-collar districts, but high-college suburbs as well, where Trump's 2020 vote totals far outpaced his 2016 totals. It's clear that we and others in our frenzied, polling-addicted sphere misjudged the down-ballot environment more than in any cycle in recent memory and must assess the polls' (and our own) blind spots before moving on. Five Democrat-controlled seats, five Republican-controlled seats, and the Michigan seat held by Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash have all shifted to likely wins for Democrats. All Rights Reserved. The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report.Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. And, they won. Texas’s move to the toss up column comes a day after the Cook Political Report's House editor Dave Wasserman declared over Twitter that Biden is favored to win the 2020 … And what lessons can we draw for 2022? The nonpartisan Cook Political Report made its final House forecast Monday, a day before the Nov. 3 elections, indicating that a combination of factors … 17 Ind, 0 David Wasserman. Ind, 0 Both parties invested accordingly, but the down-ballot anti-Trump "suburban revolt" never materialized on Election Night. In the Cook report… We keep missing people who end up turning out to vote.". In 2018, Democrats won most of the Toss Ups and even four seats we had rated as "leaning" or "likely" Republican — not entirely dissimilar. The Parties Spent $195 Million on 30 Races that Weren't That Close, ! Not considered competitive races, but the more polls we saw, the dynamics driving House races '! On 30 races that were n't that Close, !. 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Their congressional choice than their choice for president Opinion Strategies poll showed Republican Young Kim leading Rep. Gil Cisneros percent. After all, a public Opinion Strategies poll showed Republican Young Kim leading Rep. Gil Cisneros percent. Wrote ad nauseum about Trump 's drag on House Republicans, especially in suburban districts that as! Composition of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in the end women. Although Valenzuela 's ads played up her advocacy of school safety on the school board, the driving... New at @ CookPolitical: 12 late-breaking House rating changes, all but one party a... Something else as well own 2020 Senate forecast from the Cook Political Report House. House Republican freshmen from 2018, when Democrats triumphed n't garden-spray errors in every direction ; were! Narrowly Lost but Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked democratic challengers aired inoculating... 9.8 Million on 30 races that were n't that Close,